ICES Experimental Economics Brown Bag Lecture
Demographic Decline and Inflation: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach
Friday, February 27, 2026 4:00 PM to 5:00 PM EST
Vernon Smith Hall (formerly Metropolitan Building), Room 5075
The Interdisciplinary Center for Economic Science (ICES) presents an ICES Brown Bag Lecture featuring:
George Mason University
Demographic Decline and Inflation: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach
Abstract
Demographic decline in developed economies creates fiscal pressure as shrinking workforces support growing retiree populations. We develop an agent- based model to trace the interaction between demographic change, fiscal stress, and inflation.
The model features heterogeneous agents across overlapping age cohorts, Lee-Carter mortality with endogenous response to economic conditions, Laffer curve labor supply, fiscal policy with seigniorage, and Wicksellian interest rate determination. Key innovations include endogenous mortality adjustment, creating self-reinforcing spirals between demographics, fiscal stress, and inflation, and configurable inflation pass-through mechanisms for exploring inflationary dynamics. We document emergent threshold effects: economies can absorb gradual demographic decline but exhibit nonlinear deterioration beyond critical dependency ratios.
For more information about the Brown Bag Lectures, please visit the Brown Bag Schedule homepage.
