ICES Occasional Brown Bag for July 2

Events, Seminars | June 24, 2015

Join us for an ICES Occasional Brown Bag Lecture, featuring Joshua Miller.

Prof. Miller, of Bocconi University, will discuss his paper (co-authored with Adam Sanjurjo) Surprised by the Gambler’s and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers (abstract). The talk will take place on Thursday, July 2nd, from 12:00 to 1:00pm, in room 5075 of the Metropolitan Building, Arlington campus.

Coffee and dessert will be provided.

If you plan to attend, please RSVP with Stan Tsirulnikov.

Please visit the Brown Bag Schedule to learn more about the Brown Bag series.

Abstract

We discover a subtle but substantial bias in a measure of serial dependence in sequential data. This measure has been used prominently in the literature investigating biased beliefs in sequential data. When correcting for the bias in an analysis of data from prominent studies in the literature, the results are reversed. The bias also provides a learning-based foundation for the law of small numbers, and has implications for the study of the perception of randomness.

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